We are all scared of trying something new. When it comes to careers and work, we are especially good at talking ourselves out of any meaningful change.
We may daydream about switching careers but eventually decide to stay on our current course. Even when we are cornered into a near desperate situation we tend to slightly adjust or modify what we do.
I believe most people behave this way (including this author) because we are calculating probability the wrong way.
Conditional Probability
From Wikipedia, the basic definition of conditional probability is, as follows:
In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring given that another event has (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) occurred.
It’s worth mentioning that there does not have to be a causal relationship between one event and the other event. Nor do the two events need to occur at the same time.
The example given is a simple one:
For example, the probability that any given person has a cough on any given day may be only 5%. But if we know or assume that the person has a cold, then they are much more likely to be coughing. The conditional probability that someone coughing is unwell might be 75%, then: P(Cough) = 5%; P(Sick | Cough) = 75%
Back To Switching Careers
The way we are taught to think is to go down a list of qualifications, requirements, and criterias. This is how job descriptions are written, right?
Starting a business goes the same way. Do you know the business, industry, and local/national market.
It’s easy to see why people get scared of making the big leap. In the end, we determine that our probably of succeeding in the new endeavor ends up being zero.
“I don’t have this or that. I don’t have experience doing that. Nope, that’s a foreign concept to me. Yup, there’s too much to learn.”
In the end, what began as a “I want to do this!” turns into a “Can I do this?” and winds up becoming a “Is this worth it?” exercise.
Calculate Propability The Right Way
When I switched from finance to sales and marketing, I used my variant of conditional probability. I didn’t know it at the time but that’s exactly what I did.
I had never had direct experience but there were many other skills that I brought to the job. I was trained to be analytical and live in numbers. Sales management heavily demands a numbers-orientation.
I have never led marketing people but I have led finance, IT, facilities, investor relations, and corporate development departments. Sure, I could do it.
I have never had to “carry the bag” and go sell to customers. But, in some ways, I have had to go “sell” to stakeholders. Mine just happened to be investors, business partners, and vendor representatives.
You get the idea. The more I stopped looking for reasons NOT to do it, I began thinking through reasons why I could do it well.
At the end of the day, we spend years building up core capabilities - or not. And, core capabilties are a lot more fundamental than people assume. It is not whether or not we have mastery over some specific type of process or software tool.
If you have always wondered if you should make that big switch in career or job but killed the idea long ago … try calculating the probability again. And, this time, do it right.